Občanské sdružení Česká geologie
Pštrsossova 16
11000 Praha 1
e-mail: ceskageologie@volny.cz

Tilts, global tectonics and earthquake prediction

1 Introduction
2. Earthquake predictability / accidentality (Kalenda)
3. Theory of external forces (Neumann, Kalenda, Skalský, Kopf, Wandrol)
4. Experiments with seismicity and tests of effects (Kalenda, Málek, Skalský, Ostřihanský)
5. Vertical static pendulum (Neumann)
6. Pendulum measurement results – tilts (Kalenda, Neumann)
7. Interpretation of pendulum measurement (Kalenda, Neumann)
8. Comparison of pendulum measurement with other methods (Kalenda)
9. Plate movement mechanism (Kalenda, Neumann, Procházka, Ostřihanský)
10. Earthquake prediction (Kalenda, Neumann)
Main results: the measurements of tectonic stress by vertical static pendulums, even if performed in central Europe only, showed anomalies usually several weeks before the most of strong earthquakes (M ≥ 7; M ≥ 6 in some cases) worldwide. The source regions of anomalous stress can be localized in combination with other data (sometimes by pendulum measurements alone), which makes largely successful predictions possible (one day to more than one month before, depending on magnitude). It has been shown that the movements of lithospheric plates are caused by external forces with dominant role of solar radiation, and they do not testify for mantle convection.

The network of vertical static pendulums, as well as its coordination with other measurements, is steadily evolving. At present, we are monitoring 12 pendulums in 9 geographic localities (4 in the Czech Republic, and the others in Slovakia, Ukraine, Russia, Italy, and Slovenia).
We look forward to cooperation with scientists, who want to install vertical static pendulums in their regions of interest, or to perform other measurements suitable for combination with pendulum measurements to predict earthquakes timely.


247 pages, 124 figures
recomended price: 33€ / 45 USD + pp

To order the monograph, please write to p.kalenda@volny.cz.
To buy the monograph in Prague, please write to ceskageologie@volny.cz.

Citation from the first chapter:

We would simply like to show in this book that it is actually possible to predict earthquakes. We are going to present our own results of measurements of micro-deformations of massif using vertical static pendulums. Based on that, we will show how it would be possible to predict the place and time and magnitude of future earthquakes. Since different chapters of this book address different subjects it is possible to skip over some of them. If you would like to learn about our measurements we recommend going directly to Chapter 5. If you would like to read about the model of movement of lithospheric plates and/or with prediction of earthquakes only, please proceed directly to Chapters 9 and 10.

In Chapter 2, we are going to show why the earthquakes are predictable.

In Chapter 3, we are going to theoretically evaluate exogenous effects that might be the triggering mechanisms for earthquakes including tides (Skalský, Kalenda), change in the Earth rotation speed (LOD) (Ostřihanský), gravitational non-tidal forces (Neumann), and thermo-elastic waves, and we will discuss how stress and deformation penetrate from the surface areas to deeper locations in the crust and to surrounding areas (Kopf, Wandrol).

In Chapter 4, we are going to show which triggering mechanisms have been discovered with regard to world seismicity, in coal mines, and in seismicity in California and in Italy.  And we will try to determine their influence on the triggering of a number of major earthquakes (Kalenda, Málek, Skalský, Ostřihanský).

In Chapter 5, we are going to describe the equipment for measuring the micro-deformation of rocks that we use for measuring tilts (Neumann).

In Chapter 6, we are going to present and analyse the results of the micro-tilt measurement of massif both on the surface and underground since 2007 (Neumann, Kalenda).

In Chapter 7, we are going to show how it is possible to interpret the measured tilt data (Kalenda, Neumann).

In Chapter 8, we are going to compare our results of deformation measurements with other deformation measurement methods and methods of indirect stress measurement.

In Chapter 9, we will sketch out a working model of the lithosphere plate movement resulting from the deformation measurements. That model will form a basis for the interpretation of the observed deformation measurement anomalies for forecasting earthquakes (Kalenda, Neumann, Procházka, Ostřihanský).

In Chapter 10, we will propose how it is possible to predict earthquakes based on indirect stress measurements using vertical static pendulums. Using examples from the years 2007 to 2010, we will show which seismic events could have been predicted and which ones were actually predicted (Kalenda, Neumann).
19.03.2014 20:23:43
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